Macro context
Track Fed decisions, inflation and employment releases. Explain a possible transmission channel through rates, the dollar or liquidity without assuming that Bitcoin must react in one direction.
Market research
Bitcoin research and strategy backtesting
Connect Bitcoin market context to a reproducible hypothesis. Examine the source, trading costs and what would change your view before judging a historical result.
Open market researchReviewed 4 November 2026
Know the instrument you are testing
BTCUSDT · Binance Futures · USDT perpetual
The focused market uses the BTCUSDT perpetual contract on Binance Futures. Other app tools may use BTCUSDT spot when spot is explicitly selected. BTCUSDT is quoted in USDT, not USD. Keep spot and perpetual results separate and check the venue, execution model and funding assumptions.
What to investigate
Spot versus leverage
Funding, open interest and traded volume describe different things. A single venue's figures are not the whole market. Candles alone do not establish funding, open interest or marketwide volume.
ETF disclosures
Use an issuer's dated holdings, shares and NAV with the stated methodology. A change in assets under management is not automatically net inflow, and one fund does not represent all Bitcoin ETFs.
Costs and market conditions
Compare fees and slippage assumptions, including weekend conditions where relevant. Keep the original rule and test an untouched later period. State clearly whether perpetual funding is excluded.
Turn context into a testable idea
Observe
Read the source and its publication time. Separate a confirmed event from an explanation of why price moved.
Prepare
Write a conditional hypothesis, the price behavior that would confirm it, what would invalidate it, and when it expires.
Test
Use the same instrument, timeframe and data source. Include fees and slippage. Test rules on an untouched later period; use paper observation if the idea cannot yet be expressed as rules.
Review
Keep the original hypothesis. Record failed, expired and untriggered scenarios as well as favorable outcomes.